Aging and the global cancer burden: A population-based cohort study and predictive modelling analysis using the global cancer database.
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BACKGROUND: As the global population is aging, the impact of cancer among the elderly have become critical areas of study. This demographic shift is expected to continue, necessitating detailed analysis for effective planning and resource allocation in cancer control and prevention. This research aims to predict the rise in cancer rates among older adults across various United Nations (UN) regions from 1970 to 2050, aiming to highlight the significant challenges posed by cancer within this demographic. METHODS: Data on cancer incidence and mortality were extracted from the Global Cancer Database (GLOBOCAN), of both current statistics and projections up to 2050. Additionally, world population figures were obtained from United Nations population estimates to analyze demographic shifts between younger and older populations. A time-series analysis was conducted to calculate and compare trends in cancer burden among the elderly compared to the young across various regions and Human Development Index (HDI) categories as defined by the UN. With the predictive modelling, we calculated the quantitative cancer statistics, including rate ratios and case fatality rates (per 100,000), and compared incidence and mortality rates along with demographic and socioeconomic data to assess disparities and temporal trends. RESULTS: Cancer incidence and mortality rates are markedly higher in the elderly across UN regions. In Africa, the incidence rate for the elderly is 748.59 per 100,000, compared to 59.41 for the young, while mortality rates are 582.82 for the elderly versus 34.54 for the young. In Northern America, the elderly incidence is 2623.83 per 100,000, with mortality at 800.70, compared to 308.35 and 58.55 for the young, respectively. Prostate cancer incidence among elderly men is significant, while breast cancer is predominant in elderly women. By 2050, Northern America's elderly incidence is projected to rise to 2905.74 per 100,000, with mortality increasing to 961.07. Latin America anticipates a rise in elderly incidence from 1257.84 to 1313.00 per 100,000 and mortality from 732.15 to 782.65. CONCLUSION: The analysis indicates significant demographic shifts, with the elderly population projected to markedly increase across all UN regions from 1970 to 2050, highlighting the urgent need for targeted healthcare strategies to address the rising cancer burden, particularly in higher HDI regions. By analyzing the interplay between demographic shifts, socioeconomic factors, and cancer trends, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers and healthcare providers, advocating for proactive planning and resource allocation to effectively tackle the anticipated rise in cancer incidence and mortality among the elderly.