Trends and demographic inequalities in mortality of the Lithuanian population during the COVID-19 pandemic: who suffered most?
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UNLABELLED: The aim of the study was to analyze changes and demographic inequalities in the mortality of the Lithuanian population in 2020 and 2021 compared to the period of 2015-2019, assess the major causes of death that contributed to the changes, and identify the groups of the society that suffered most. METHODS: Mortality rates for 2015-2021 from all causes, cardiovascular diseases, malignant neoplasms, external causes, diseases of the digestive system, diseases of the respiratory system, and COVID-19 in Lithuania by sex and age were calculated per 100,000 population. Mortality changes compared with the previous year and between the average of 2015-2019 years were calculated. The average annual percentage change was calculated to determine the aggregated 2015-2019 change in mortality from the leading causes of death. Coefficients of linear regression multiplied by 100 were presented as average annual changes, which were statistically significant at p < 0.05. Mortality rate differences between 2020 and 2021 years and the average of 2015-2019 years were calculated. RESULTS: Lithuania has recorded 9.4% higher overall mortality among males in 2020 and 18% higher mortality in 2021 compared with a period unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic (p < 0.05). Among females - 10.7% higher mortality in 2020 and 22.6% in 2021 (p < 0.05). Male and female mortality from COVID-19 in all age groups in 2021 was higher than that in 2020, and mortality rates increased with an increase in age. Negative changes in mortality from 2015 to 2019 to 2020 among males and females of all age groups were mainly determined by COVID-19. The most significant impact of COVID-19 in 2021 on the overall mortality changes was estimated in the 55-64 and 65-74 male age groups, while female overall mortality was in the 45-54 and 65-74 age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Negative changes in mortality from 2015 to 2019 to 2020 among males and females of all age groups were mainly determined by COVID-19. The most significant impact of COVID-19 in 2021 on the overall mortality changes was estimated in the 55-74 male age group, while on female overall mortality in the 45-54 and 65-74 age groups.