Exploring temporal trends and influencing factors for upper digestive tract cancers in Guangzhou, China: 2010-2020.
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BACKGROUND: The burden of upper digestive tract cancers is heavy in China and the world. This study was conducted to investigate the temporal trends and influencing factors associated with the incidence of upper digestive tract cancers in Guangzhou, China, from 2010 to 2020. METHODS: In this study, a jointpoint regression model was employed to analyze the temporal trends in the incidence of upper digestive tract cancers. Additionally, grey correlation analysis was utilized to examine the impact of correlation factors on the observed trends. RESULTS: Cancer incidence data came from Guangzhou Cancer Registry and population data came from Guangzhou Bureau of Statistics. Between 2010 and 2020, there were 5375 reported cases of esophageal cancer (EC) and 10,880 cases of gastric cancer (GC) in the region. The incidence rates were consistently higher in men than in women, with the highest rates observed in both genders among individuals aged 80-84. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a general decreasing trend in the incidence of both EC and GC. The incidence of EC in females has decreased significantly faster than in males, while the incidence of GC in females has remained more stable. Additionally, economic, medical, soil, and air quality factors are closely related to the incidence of these two types of cancer, although there are some differences between them. CONCLUSION: The disease burden of upper digestive tract cancers in Guangzhou is relatively low. This study offers a social perspective for understanding and managing upper digestive tract cancers, and it provides valuable insights for optimizing cancer control strategies in other high-risk regions.