Ecological and health risk assessments of PAHs in marine sediments near petroleum operations: A source-resolved hybrid modelling approach for the northern Persian gulf.
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The semi enclosed Persian Gulf, characterized by restricted circulation and intensive petroleum activities, is highly susceptible to the accumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in coastal sediments. This study provides an integrated assessment of PAH contamination in surface sediments from Bushehr Province. Located adjacent to major offshore production zones in Bahregan and Kharg, the region receives substantial PAH inputs from oil spills, ballast-water discharge, industrial effluents, fuel smuggling, and offshore extraction operations. The assessment is complemented by source apportionment and ecological and human-health risk evaluation. Thirty PAHs were extracted using Soxhlet extraction and quantified by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Spatial patterns were mapped using geostatistical interpolation, and sources were resolved through the absolute principal component-multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) receptor model. Probabilistic risk estimates were generated using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). ∑PAHs concentrations ranged from 203.81 to 2139.9 ng g-1, with profiles dominated by low-molecular-weight (LMW) and alkylated compounds, indicating strong petrogenic influence from offshore extraction and petroleum handling. APCS-MLR identified two major factors: a petrogenic source (63%) enriched in LMW and alkylated PAHs, and a pyrogenic source (37%) dominated by combustion-derived high-molecular-weight PAHs. Spatial interpolation identified offshore hotspots near oil fields and terminals, while urban and port areas exhibited elevated pyrogenic signatures. Model validation showed strong agreement between measured and predicted concentrations. Ecological risk assessment using the Contamination Severity Index indicated very low to low risk, although pyrogenic PAHs contributed disproportionately due to higher toxic potency. Probabilistic human-health modelling showed that incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) values for both children and adults were below the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) threshold (10-6), with ingestion as the dominant exposure pathway and children exhibiting greater susceptibility. Despite overall risks were low, the combined influence of petroleum operations, maritime traffic, and coastal urbanization highlights the need for continued monitoring and source-specific management in this region.