Global, Regional, and National Burden of Hematologic Malignancies From 1990 to 2021, With Projections of Mortality and Incidence to 2031.
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BACKGROUND: Global analyses of hematologic malignancies often lack subtype integration and advanced forecasting, limiting public health planning. METHODS: Using GBD 2021 data (1990-2021), we analyzed age-standardized incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma. Spatiotemporal models quantified age-, sex-, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI)-stratified disparities. The Prophet model forecasted trends to 2031. RESULTS: In 2021, global ASIRs were 5.63, 7.93, and 1.74 per 100,000 for leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma, respectively. ASIR correlated positively with SDI for all subtypes (e.g., multiple myeloma: ρ = 0.81, p < 0.001). Mortality patterns were heterogeneous; Hodgkin lymphoma ASDR correlated negatively with SDI (ρ = -0.26, p < 0.001). Projections suggest stable or declining ASDRs by 2031 (e.g., leukemia: 3.86 to 3.40) but persistent male predominance. DALYs remain high in low-SDI regions. DISCUSSION: The disparity between high incidence in high-SDI areas and higher mortality fractions in low-SDI areas underscores diagnostic and therapeutic inequities. DALYs reflect associated long-term functional and psychosocial burden. CONCLUSION: This study reveals profound global inequalities in hematologic malignancies. Mitigating this burden requires strengthening early diagnosis and treatment in low-SDI regions while integrating psychosocial support into global survivorship care.