Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment of aflatoxins and zearalenone in processed maize products marketed in Türkiye.
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A total of 80 processed maize products were collected from retail markets in Türkiye during 2024 and analysed for aflatoxins and zearalenone (ZEN) using high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection (HPLC-FLD). Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) was detected in 53.8% of samples at concentrations ranging from 0.628 to 3.57 μg kg-1, and 3.8% of the samples exceeded the European Union maximum level (EU ML) of 2 μg kg-1. ZEN was recorded in 13.8% of samples at concentrations of 2.06-3.24 μg kg-1, with all values well below EU MLs. Mean margin of exposure (MOE) values were calculated to range from 1040 to 1113 in adults and from 855 to 914 in children, indicating a potential public health concern. Hepatocellular carcinoma risk estimates were consistently higher in children than in adults and exceeded benchmark risk levels under certain high-prevalence scenarios. In contrast, dietary exposure to ZEN represented only 0.12-0.44% of the tolerable daily intake in the deterministic assessment and remained below 1.04% of the health-based guidance value in probabilistic simulations. These results indicate that AFB1 contamination in processed maize products marketed in Türkiye may represent a potential public health concern, particularly for children, whereas current exposure to ZEN appears negligible. However, the findings should be interpreted in light of the regional sampling design and the relatively low detection frequency of ZEN.