Paediatric and Adult Solid Tumours Exhibiting NTRK Gene Fusions in Australia, 2020-2044: A Population-Based Statistical Modelling Study.
AI interpretation is pending for this paper.
Open original publication →What the AI sees
Not AI summarized yet.
Research significance
Pending deeper interpretation.
Source abstract
BACKGROUND: TRK inhibitors targeting NTRK fusion-positive cancers have the potential to improve patient outcomes, but also have high costs. We report the first long-term projections of cancer prevalence associated with NTRK gene fusions in Australia, to 2044. METHODS: We analysed national Australian Institute of Health and Welfare incidence (1982-2019) and survival (1991-2019), NSW Enduring Cancer Data Linkage incidence (1982-2019) and survival data (1982-2019). We projected 1-year to 5-year cancer prevalence using validated statistical methods, for all stages combined, advanced disease at diagnosis (here, distant metastasis/lymph node involvement), and advanced disease after progression post-diagnosis. We estimated prevalence for all paediatric cancers combined (age < 18 years at diagnosis), all adult solid cancers combined, 18 cancer types/groups, and 5 cancer sub-types relevant to current Australian government subsidies of TRK inhibitors. RESULTS: For all solid cancers combined, we project increasing prevalence of individuals who were diagnosed with tumours exhibiting NTRK gene fusions, primarily due to population growth and ageing. For example, for 2-year prevalence (aligning with 2.5 years average treatment assumed in previous economic assessments for a TRK inhibitor subsidy), the projected increases from 2019 to 2044 are: all stages combined, paediatric cancers 80 to 106 (+ 32.5%), adult cancers 645 to 970 (+ 50.4%); advanced disease at diagnosis, paediatric cancers 19 to 23 (+ 21.1%), adult cancers 185 to 261 (+ 41.1%); advanced disease after progression post-diagnosis, paediatric cancers 22 to 30 (+ 36.4%), adult cancers 110 to 180 (+ 63.6%). CONCLUSION: The results from this study can support healthcare planning and budget forecasts, including for different potential government treatment subsidy scenarios.