The burden and trends of late-onset multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias among adults aged 55 and older, spanning from 1990 to 2021, with projections through 2050.
A global epidemiological analysis (1990–2021) with projections to 2050 quantifying incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for late-onset MS, Parkinson's disease, and dementias in adults 55+, reporting substantial PD burden with sex and regional SDI differences and population aging as the main…
What the AI sees
A global epidemiological analysis (1990–2021) with projections to 2050 quantifying incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for late-onset MS, Parkinson's disease, and dementias in adults 55+, reporting substantial PD burden with sex and regional SDI differences and population aging as the main…
Research significance
Useful for public-health prioritization, trial site and recruitment planning, and identifying high-burden regions and demographic groups for PD interventions, but offers minimal mechanistic or translational insights for direct therapeutic discovery.
Source abstract
OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the global burden of common central nervous system (CNS) disorders—including late-onset multiple sclerosis (LOMS), Parkinson’s disease (PD), Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias (ADOD)—among adults aged 55 years and older, covering the period from 1990 to 2021 with projections extending through 2050. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, spanning the years 1990 to 2021, were analyzed to evaluate the number of incident and prevalent cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and their corresponding age-standardized rates. These metrics were stratified by socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, sex, and age groups. Future trends were forecasted using the Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model up to the year 2036 and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model up to 2050. RESULTS: In 2021, global cases reached 0.76 million for LOMS, 10.76 million for PD, and 20.84 million for ADOD. ADOD exhibited the highest burden across all metrics. Females bore greater LOMS and ADOD burden; males bore higher PD burden. High SDI regions had highest LOMS burden; high-middle SDI regions led in PD and ADOD burden. Population growth was the primary burden driver. China faced the highest PD and ADOD burden due to rapid aging. CONCLUSION: Urgent health policies must target elderly populations with sex-specific approaches—focusing on women for LOMS/ADOD and men for PD—alongside strategies for high-risk demographic groups. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10072-026-08986-6.